Sell your Property For Sale By Owner

Four Phases of the Real Estate Cycle

A once-famous economist by the name of Henry George wrote a theory of economic booms and crashes in his work, Progress and Poverty. The theory is now taught in the world’s best real estate schools, including Harvard, Stanford and Princeton.

Henry George identified the root cause of the speculative rise in real estate prices, which cuts into the earnings of labor and capital.

He began to notice that real estate values rise at a faster rate than general economic growth because of two unavoidable facts:

1. Land is not produced. Its supply is fixed.
2. Land is needed for all production and lifestyles.

As we have seen, this creates a tendency for real estate rents and mortgage payments to take an ever-greater share of a family’s budget.

The power of land to destabilize the economy gets much easier to understand when we realize that land value forms a majority of the collateral security for large bank loans.

In the run-up to the "Crash of 2008," a huge portion of the overall debt was secured by owner-occupied real estate. In many cases, a family's home was their only form of savings and they expected the real estate's appreciated value to ultimately provide for their retirement. Real estate values were steadily increasing and land seemed like a very sound investment.

Buyers borrowed extra money to build large, expensive homes and many homeowners borrowed still more money against their home equity, hoping to enjoy their appreciating land values now and later.

The problem is that real estate, like all assets, has a cycle of appreciation and depreciation. The key is understanding the cycle and how to buy low and sell high.

The Phases of the Real Estate Cycle:

• Phase 1 – Recovery
• Phase 2 – Expansion
• Phase 3 – Excess
• Phase 4 – Recession

The four phases of the Real Estate Cycle have played out for at least the last 100 years in the United States. Although the timing for each phase is slightly different, the overall growing and retracting pattern play out again and again.

Phase 1 – Recovery

The first phase of the real estate cycle generally occurs after a decline in the market. This is when the price of land and real estate is at its lowest point in the cycle but is steadily increasing.

As the downtrend of the market begins to stabilize, recovery invites investors into the marketplace at considerably lower prices. Vacancy rates across all real estate asset classes, such as office buildings, retail malls and single-family homes begin to decrease. Companies start to expand and families move into previously vacant homes.

This phase of the cycle is the best time to purchase real estate assets with a more favorable rent-to-buy ratio and an expected increase in equity value in the coming years.

Phase 2 – Expansion

The second phase of the real estate market cycle is based on expansion. This is the period that sees rapidly increasing prices as demand begins to outpace supply.

The transition from recovery to expansion occurs when real estate buyers and investors have absorbed the excess inventory. As the supply continues to shrink, prices begin to climb rapidly as the market starts to favor sellers instead of buyers.

In recent years, this phase is generally associated with lower interest rates, allowing more money to flow into the real estate markets. For the investors that got into the market during phase one, this is where their profits begin to show.

Since many real estate expenses are fixed (except taxes in most states), this leads to a dramatic increase in revenues and profits. Increased profits attract more investors, which in turn allow new developments of vacant land and redevelopment of existing properties to begin.

Although this new demand triggers construction in hopes of increasing the supply, the lengthy process generally takes months or years to add new homes to the market. By the time meaningful amounts of new housing inventory have hit the market, the overall market expansion has been steadily rising without the benefit of new supply.

During this time occupancy rates, rents and asset prices have been increasing. The cycle begins to reach a point in which rent and price growth is accelerating. This causes many investors and buyers to adjust their forecast to reflect the accelerated growth rate.

Buyers, believing the price is justified by predicting continued growth, begin to overpay for real estate assets in contrast to current market conditions. This part of the cycle is generally referred to as a housing bubble.

Phase 3 – Excess Supply

During the second phase we noted a shortage of supply in real estate inventory in relation to buyer demand. This caused an increase in prices of real estate assets and related rents.

The third phase begins to take effect once we see an increase in real estate absorption rates. In plain English, this means that houses begin to sit on the market longer. This is considered to be an increase in unsold inventory in the market due to peak prices and new supplies.

This can begin to occur for many reasons including peak prices, increases in mortgage interest rates and new supplies of real estate inventory. The increase in inventory may be due to age demographics as well as older generations tend to downsize to prolong their retirement savings and cash-out of their real estate investments while prices are high.

These factors combine to form a point where home prices no longer rise and begin to decrease as market demand flattens and supply increases.

Phase 4 – Recession

The final phase of the long-term Real Estate Cycle is a transition from excessive supply to a downturn in prices. The major indicators for this phase are declining occupancy rates, increased mortgage delinquencies and lowering absorption rates.

During this phase of the cycle, new construction comes to a halt in fear of declining prices, but projects that started during phase three will begin to hit the market, adding to the supply and worsening the decline.

In general, rising interest rates are a macroeconomic trend that causes issues during the recession phase. This occurs due to the rapid increase in prices throughout the economy that accompanied the expansion in the earlier phases.

The rapid growth in prices, also known as inflation, will sooner or later cause the private central bank known as the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by incrementally increasing interest rates.

The increase in interest rates has a direct effect on owner-occupied homebuyers and investors alike. This is due to the purchasing power of mortgage-backed financing. On average, a one percent increase in a 30-year fixed mortgage will equal around a 10 percent decline in purchasing power. This means homeowners will only be able to afford homes of lesser value, adding to the lowering prices due to excessive supply.

Lower occupancy, a higher market supply and plummeting prices; all of these factors combine to feed a downward spiral that leaves poorly-timed investors and over-leveraged homeowners in the dust.

The downturn in the real estate market has an enormous impact on the economy as a whole, which, in turn, pushes the housing market down further.

The most interesting aspect of the Real Estate Cycle is the consistency of the trends. Economist Homer Hoyt studied the broader US housing market going back to the year 1800 and discovered that the Real Estate Cycle has a fairly reliable 18-year rhythm.

Hoyt’s findings included just two exceptions: World War II, and the mid-cycle peak created by the Federal Reserve’s doubling of interest rates in 1979.

Do I have to use a Real Estate Agent

Navigating a real estate purchase is serious business. It requires knowledge of legal agreements, the escrow process, negotiations and government requirements.

It makes sense to want to forgo hiring a realtor. After all, we live in a world of technology. Why can’t you just post your property on Craigslist for free and sell it?

The truth is, even in the most competitive markets in the world it takes a lot to get a property sold for the highest possible value.

Sites like Zillow and Realtor.com have made it possible to do a lot of the legwork yourself but there’s no substitute for an experienced professional.

The short answer is no. Technically, there is no legal requirement to use a real estate broker to sell your property in most areas.

Regulations change for each market. Requirements for City, State and Federal authorities may effect a transaction. A missed clause in a purchase contract might cost you thousands or you might get locked into an inspection period of time that makes you miss a better offer.

Using an excellent real estate broker will help navigate the process and avoid mistakes.

Yet, it’s within an owner's rights to sell a property without a broker.

Even though many people have the impression that they are required to use a real estate agent to sell their home, there is no universal law or regulation that mandates it.

However, some states require a real estate broker to facilitate the transaction and handle the documents and disclosures. If you do not know the laws that apply in your area, check with your states Bureau of Real Estate or the similar agency that regulates real estate transactions in your area.

Many homeowners dream of having a buyer call them up and agree to pay top-dollar for their home – that all they need to do is post a for sale sign in the yard and a wave of interested cash buyers will come flooding in.

However, reality dictates that it’s far more involved. Throwing some images on the Internet and then waiting for the offers to roll through is not a solid strategy. Not taking a transaction seriously can cost you tens of thousands and in some cases millions.

Before selecting which broker will be the perfect fit for you. Do your homework with the tools available. Many important aspects can be found within this book, we also offer useful links and tools to help you get a clear understand of what your home could be worth.

Take the time to talk to a real estate professional and have them do a market analysis for your property. This will give you the data of the recent sales in your neighborhood. Look for trends in the house prices and inventory.

Ask questions like:

• How many properties are on the market?
• What is the average price per square foot?
• What can be done to maximize my value?

These are great starting points on the journey to selling a property. Some owners decide to go down this path alone, opting to sell the home by owner only.

This is generally caused be a misconception of the owner. Many will claim that their reasoning is to save the broker commission percent generally paid on the sale. If that is their reasoning, it’s based on an opinion and not the facts.

According to the National Association of Realtors, over 92% of homes were sold with the help of a professional broker. Those homes saw a general increase of 13% in the sales price compared to the homes sold by owner. Even if the broker charges five or six percent, you would walk away with more money in your pocket. This is why you should considering hiring the best real estate broker you can find. It will save you time, headaches and will get you more money at the end of the day.

The Three Pillars to Selling Real Estate

The Three Pillars to Selling Real Estate

Price, condition and marketing are the three primary pillars to selling a property. These three key areas will determine how much your home is worth, how many offers it receives and how quickly a transaction will close.

The three pillars work in unison to create a sum that is greater than each individual part. For example, you could take the most perfectly constructed home, with the best finishes, layout and location and price it well below market value but if there is not a solid marketing plan, it could sit on the market for months or even years!

The same can be said for the condition. A property could be priced at fair market value and the marketing could be phenomenal but if the condition of the property is poor, buyers won’t bite.

The one exception is the price. We will discuss pricing a property in later chapters, but it’s important to realize that the price is generally considered the most important of the three pillars.

Of course, each property is uniquely priced but the general idea is that a property is either priced under, over or at the current market value for its condition. A home could be in horrible shape but at the right price you will likely find a buyer.

Overpricing a property can have the opposite effect. Even if the property is in pristine condition and you have an extremely aggressive and effective marketing plan, if it’s overpriced buyers won’t submit offers.

When the price is too high you will end up wasting your time showing the property to “lookers.” Buyers that have no interest in actually writing an offer, they just want a tour.

The majority of this book will be discussing these three pillars, best practices and how they relate to each other. Even though each property is unique, once these concepts are understood it empowers property owners to position their transaction for success.

In general, the current marketing conditions have the greatest effect on a properties price. This means that the major pillars that can be directly controlled by an owner are the condition and marketing. As we discuss these areas, an owner may decide to make improvements and upgrades to a property’s condition after determining the potential return on investment in the current market.

It’s a delicate balance of the three pillars that allow a homeowner to get the most money in the shortest amount of time. The careful planning and execution of these pillars is the most important secret to sold.

The Emotional Sales Process

Every human is unique; this includes their sense of style, expectations, needs and financial situation. The emotional sales process goes beyond the nuances and simplifies the process from getting a qualified lead to closing a transaction.

Before we discuss the specifics of a real estate sale, we need to touch on the emotional side of selling. After all, every sale is just a series of emotions that cause a person to agree to terms and take actions to purchase.

Depending on the nature of the property you are selling, the particulars of the sales process differ. Generally, these are the steps most sales go through:

1. Awareness

To get the sales process started, first you need to make potential customers aware of your existence and offer them information on the property.

Other ways to reach out can be through social media marketing, email marketing, cold calling, attending events, advertising and word of mouth.

RapportBuilding friendships with prospects can make them more receptive to what you have to say. Reach them in a way that is more comfortable and non-aggressive. Understand their needs, what they like about the property and discuss how to make this purchase a win-win.

Educate! Educate! Educate!

Give them information and ideas, which will convince them of the value of your property, why they need it and how to purchase it.

2. Trust

To convert prospects into paying customers, you need to develop a deep connection of trust with that person. They need to feel that the decision is in their best interest and they will get what is promised. This can be done in a rather short period of time and is a skill that can be learned and improved.

Trust goes beyond just believing in the property itself; there are actually three aspects to building trust in the sale:

• Trust in your property
• Trust in your process
• Trust in you

Make sure you are making the prospect feel comfortable with the decision to purchase. This goes back to educating them on the benefits buying the property will have for them. Why they should purchase the property and why they should purchase it from you.

This goes beyond being friendly to an interested party. It’s about connecting with them on an emotional level. This is only achieved by keeping your word and delivering on your promises. Do that over time and you will be trusted and successful.

3. Evaluation

Purchases are not always made instantly, which is why prospects will take their time in making their final decision. It is best to back off and give them the time and options to help facilitate their decision.

Giving prospects free samples or trials can help them evaluate the property and influence them in the right direction. Have flyers and even blueprints for them to take home. This helps with their decision to submit a great offer.